To be fair, this is almost playing out exactly as projected.

This 2023 Alabama football team was always expected to be paced by its defense as the offense retooled with its first Heisman quarterback departing for the NFL.

So the gap — make that the gulf — between the Crimson Tide offense and defense shouldn’t come as a surprise. Through eight weeks, the rest of this piece wouldn’t be possible if this defense hadn’t taken charge in a few key moments this season.

But there’s a difference between forecasts and expectations.

And in Tuscaloosa, it’s always to compete for national titles regardless of rankings or polls.

That’s also where this team’s statistical deviation from the previous norm leaves the 2023 Crimson Tide an outlier.

Defensively, it stacks up with semifinalists and national champions in the playoff era. Through eight games, it ranks 15th in both total defense (306.4 yards per game) and scoring defense (16.5 points per game).

It’s that recalibrated offense that steps way outside the scatter plots of past title contenders.

Through eight games, Alabama has the 81st-best offense in terms of yardage (366.6) and 49th-best group in terms of scoring (30.6 points per game). Since winning the 2009 national title, no Alabama offense finished a season ranked lower than 43rd in total offense while it was in the top seven in four straight seasons (2018-21).

Among national champions of the playoff era, no team finished lower than 30th in scoring offense while four of the last five netted more than 40 points a game.

When looking at the top 10 teams in the Associated Press poll, No. 9 Alabama is the lowest-ranked in both the scoring and yardage gained categories.

And yet, with four regular-season games to play, it leads the SEC West entering the perennially important game with LSU.

That Nov. 4 meeting in Bryant-Denny Stadium will feature a classic battle of strength on strength, weakness on weakness. The Tigers are No. 1 in both scoring offense (47.4 points per game) and total offense (552.9 yards per game). Defensively, it is 82nd in scoring (26.5 points) and 91st in yardage (395.0).

It’ll be that 6:30 p.m. CT game in Tuscaloosa that continues Alabama’s wobble-kneed journey through this unconventional season. Win and the Crimson Tide has an inside-track to the SEC championship game with only Kentucky and Auburn left on the league schedule.

All that said, games are won on the field and not on spreadsheets.

LSU, for example, played for the 2011 national title with the No. 86 total offense a year before Notre Dame reached the same ground at No. 54. Neither would be the best motivation since both were crushed by generational Alabama defenses in BCS title games.

So, how is an Alabama offense that’s scored the 46th-most touchdowns (28) in the hunt?

Well, it is tied for No. 3 with 15 made field goals. The Tide is one of 11 teams who hasn’t missed a 3-pointer this season and the 15 attempts tops that group. So, while Alabama is No. 78 in terms of red zone touchdown percentage (58.3%), it is 21st in terms of red zone scoring (91.7%). So, they’ve maximized their trips by getting points on 22 of 24 red zone appearances.

Alabama’s also hitting the big plays with 13 going for 40-plus yards. That’s good for a tie for No. 9 nationally.

But when you’ve crossed the 40-point mark just once while averaging 28.7 points in six games against Power 5 teams, it takes a defense that stood tall in crucial moments against Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Tennessee.

Stopping an electric LSU offense in two weeks will be the biggest test for this re-energized defense in what’ll likely be its defining moment.

So much will rest on that evening showdown when Alabama’s unpredictable and statistically improbable 2023 team can either continue its slow crawl back from the Texas embarrassment or see the whole house of cards crumble in primetime.

Michael Casagrande is a reporter for the Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @ByCasagrande or on Facebook.